Tag Archives: Politics

Playing with the crystal ball

So let’s warm up the crystal and see if I can peer into the future.
Let’s say that the Supreme Court upholds the ACA either in it’s entirety in a 5-4, or a more narrow ruling with something like a 6-3 split. (Sounds like bowling for precedents.)
The Republican base, energized by the need to repeal the ACA, recovers their enthusiasm, holds the House, takes the Senate and the White House in the trifecta of American Politics, but their hold on the senate is less than 60 votes.
What happens after that?
Well the Republican base demands that the House pass the repeal of the ACA, Romney says he will sign it, and the Bill goes to the Senate, where the Democrats filibuster it. ACA= tyranny and as tyranny cannot be allowed on a procedural trick, the Republican initiate their nuclear option and destroy the filibuster. The repeal passes on a party line vote, amid a storm in insults, shouting, and images of sick people without healthcare, and Romney signs it.
The filibuster once broken, even if the rules were changed for just one vote and then changed backed, is forever a dead letter. The Republicans, knowing that all power is fleeting, use the newly empowered government to pass tax cuts and changes along more party line votes.
What happens, when it must eventually occur, when the Democrats have the three institutions under their control? Of course they will pass the legislation they have long desired and wanted, using the same techniques with the same party line vote tallies.
This could also start the other way, ACA is struck down, and the Democrats hold the Senate and White House and regain the House. (Fairly unlikely I think.) Then blowing up the filibuster and on a party line vote they sweep into existence a single-payer system. Etc etc.
Of course, by that point, we no longer a system of stable laws and government as each change in power can lead to a whiplash of new laws, repeals, and changes controlled only by the whim of political passions.

This is not a good thing. This scares me.

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The art of Politics is the Art of Dodge-ball

I’m sure most of the people who might stumble upon my blog will have played in their youth, at least once, the game dodge-ball. You duck, weave, dodge, and twist to avoid getting it by the ball as it is sadistically hurled by your opponents. I think an argument can be said that the same is sort of true for politics in America. Continue reading →

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“I don’t think that word means what you think it means.”

The title of today’s post is of course of the many many quotable line from Rob Reiner’s classic film “The Princess Bride.” I am applying it to the Republican Primary. After all if the man who named “Front Runner” comes in third in two different primaries on the same day is it really right to keep calling him the front runner. Continue reading →

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Boycotts, Free Speech, and the Costs of Organizing.

Given the recent storm of words, charges, counter-charges, and insults over mandated contraceptive coverage under the provisions of the ACA it’s not surprising that this has moved into the realm of action and boycotting. Naturally the boycotts against talk show personality Rush Limbaugh has been called righteous and also villainous based purely upon which political party you self identify with. Boycotts, like rebellions, are only treasonous and wrong in the third person, in the first person it’s noble, heroic and patriotic. There were precious few voices on the right speaking out against boycotts when country music radio stations were throwing the Dixie Chicks off the air because of their political stand. Some, like Andrew Sullivan, have called the boycotts wrong even if they don’t share the opinions of Mr. Limbaugh. I can understand his point of view, that it is regrettable when voices are hounded out of public discourse, but I do not agree. Certainly Mr. Limbaugh has the right to speak his mind and say what he thinks is the truth, within the bounds of slander and libel of course. That right does not extend so far that I must respect his, or anyone else’s, opinion. Whom I listen to, associates with, and support with my coin is a function of my own free speech. I rarely refuse to purchase goods or services based upon advertising choices, Id be much more inclined to walk away from a company’s direct action. In fact if I make a political statement with my consumer habits it tends to b buying a product or service from someone I feel is doing the right thing. Now, Mr. Limbaugh has been making incendiary statements for a long time, but this is the first time it has really hit him hard with strong effective blow-back. This I think is because of social media and the internet. Each passing year it becomes easier and easier for people to band together, pass information, and organize responses. There was a time that this sort of campaign would have taken weeks and months to put together, with people physically copying letter and stuffing thousands of envelopes, all at considerable cost. Now with the nearly free internet, activist can perform tremendous feats of organization while holding down job, going to school, and in general having a real lift. This brings grows the pool of activists, further lowering the bar and initiating, in my opinion an exponential growth in activism and effect. The Tea Party is an early example of this, one that is sending serious shocks through the Republican party. The ‘Occupay’ movement is an example from the left, but one that has failed to have the same sort of influence, that doesn’t however preclude another movement rising on the left. I expect to see more of this as time goes on. Our political, cultural, and business systems are about to be remade.

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Super Tuesday and no heroes in sight.

I think the end is upon us. At least as far as my republican friends are concerned. Today ten states go to the polls trying to determine which republican will go one on one against Obama in the fall for the Presidency and frankly I don’t see how it is going to be anyone other than Mitt Romney.

Today will be the day that, like a train on a down slope, Romney begins picking up his unstoppable momentum hurtling towards the nomination. There may be minor signs of life within the other campaigns, but nothing is going to derail the Mitt. Like it or not the Republicans have stayed true to form and will nominate the next guy in line.

On the plus side for my Republican friends I thin Mitt has the best chance at victory. He’s centrist enough to not scare the moderates and that is where national elections are won and lost. For my Democratic friends the good news is that Romney isn’t a fire breathing social conservative and it a Republican that knows how to compromise.

That doesn’t mean I am predicting a Romney win in the fall, only that he has the best chance. Between Romney and Obama the contest could go either way. Though is Romney loses the chorus from the right will sing that it was because he was a moderate and not a ‘True Conservative’ whatever that may be. If he wins it will be proof that American truly love conservatism.

So from this day forth my Republican friends should practice wearing nose-pins so that, for them, the voting will be easier

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Presidential Campaign Songs

This is a bit of a kerfuffle over the songs used by the various republican candidates for president.  Mostly the liberal songwriters aren’t happy with their songs being used by conservative politicians, and that is of course their right, both as citizens and copyright holders.

My problem that these self-selected songs rarely capture for me the true sprit of each candidate, Here are my suggestions for the right campaign songs, with the You Tube clips since none are very modern. Continue reading →

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