Well, here I am making my very public prediction for the outcome of the US elections this cycle. 2012.

I used my usual methods to predict the outcome. A method that has in the past been fairly accurate. I used aggregate polling to determine the baseline, and then I split up the remainder of the undecided based up the right track/wrong track figure. This cycle that means I am giving 60% (I round up to the next whole 10% interval) to Romney and the Repuiblicans, as that are the party out of power with the executive branch.

The results are most unusual and I’d say are likely to be wrong, at least in the popular vote,  however I am sticking to my methodology.

Popular Vote: Mit Romney 50.3 to Barack Obama 49.7

However in the electoral college things get hanky;

Barack Obama 275-290 vs Mitt Romney 248-263. Yes this is a misfire where the electoral college and the popular vote goes north and south. They are rare, but they do happen.

Here is the electoral map as I think is most likely:

What are your guesses my brave political commenters?

Tonight, just two weeks from the election, we’ll be treated to the third and final presidential debate. The subject, in theory, is foreign policy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if things wander a bit.

I shan’t be watching this one in real time as I have a meeting of the Mysterious galaxy Writers Support Group and I try to never miss a meeting. This support group has been a real factor in my improvement as a writer. Two years ago when the group started I had just finished my novel “Cawdor,” and looking back at the manuscript I can see such improvement in style that it surprises me.

So where do we stand in the Presidential election race?

As of 10/22

RCP: Romney +0.3

TPM:  Obama +1.5

Pollster: Romney +0.1

INtrade: Obama + $2.23

Last Tuesday the numbers were:

RCP: Romney +.04

TPM: Obama +1.1

Pollster: Romney +.03

INtrade: Obama +$2.37

This is a far cry from the numbers of 9/29

RCP: Obama +4.3

TPM: Obama +3.9

Pollster: Obama +4.4

Intrade: +$5.71

It looks to me that the race has settled down into a very close heat, and the fluctuations over the last two weeks have primarily been noise in the system. Romney’s advance after the first debate has pretty much held. Right now I’d give the popular vote edge to Romney, but that may not translate into being election due toAmerica’s unusual system of presidential elections knows as the Electoral College.

Just as in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college we could have a misfire or even a tie. Of course a tie in this election would mean a Romney win as there are more red states than blue and each state would get 1 vote for determining the presidency. To make this an even more messed up situation the House only determines the presidency, the Senate votes for the vice-president. That means if the Democrats controlled the Senate we could have President Romney and Vice-President Biden.

So instead of waiting a full week to see if the polls have moved after the vice-presidential debate, I’m taking a look at them today as to remove any effect of the second presidential debate.

The numbers as they stood  six days ago on 10 Oct 2012

RCP: Romney +1

TPM Polltracker: Romney  +2.4

Pollster: Romney +1

Intrade:  Obama + $2.57

The same measurement today:

RCP: Romney +0.4

TPM Polltracker: Romney +1.1

Pollster: +0.3

INtrade: Obama $2.37

So three of the indicators moves in Obama/Biden’s direction, while the fourth moved in Romnny’s. What movement there was in Obama’s direction was weak and hardly indicative of a major change in the electorate, which seems to be the case in the movement towards Romney after the 1^st debate.

Unless something breaks, this looks to be a tight race. There are only three weeks left before election day and for team Obama the stumble in Denver is proving to be one that is dogging their heels. With a weak recovery following a financial crisis  they had little room for error, and yet still went into the debate wholly unprepared.

I had read that the debate stand for Romney was John Kerry. Really? That’s a poor choice in my opinion, one I think that might have been a factor. (But certainly not the sole and or prime factor.)

Well it has been one week since the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney and boy did that shake up the race. In my post about the debate I suggested that a Romney gaining more than three points would be ahistorical and very bad news for President Obama.

So let’s take a look at some numbers. When I suggest that Obama had the wind at his back here are the number I used to support that contention.

9/29

RCP poll of Polls        Obama +4.3

TPM polltracker        Obama +3.9

Pollster                       Obama +4.4

INtrade                      Obama+ $5.71 (7.85 vs 2.14)

Things looked good for the president, but in the debates Obama fumbled his diplomacy roll (Yea, I know skills rolls don’t have fumbles, but he still managed to do it.) Romney pivoted to the center and pulled off a very good debate performance.

Here are those same metrics as of today.

10/10

RCP                             Romney +1

TPM Polltracker        Romney +2.4

Pollster                       Romney +.1

Intrade                       Obama +$ 2.57 (6.34 vs 3.77)

That’s a 5.3 loss in the RCP averages, 6.3 in the TPM polltracker, 5.4 in Pollsters aggregate poll. This is frigging huge. The race is not over, but there is less than a month until the election and this is a very bad time to throw away your lead. Liberal partisan have been wailing, Andrew Sullivan going into full President Palin Panic, while the conservatives have been as giddy as a fanboy on a date with Natalie Portman

What I find curious is that the state by state still favors Obama, but not by much. Frank.ly I think this increases he chance of another misfire, where the popular vote and the electoral vote go north and south.

My November 6 party may run late after all.

It is hardly a secret that I am not a supporter of the Mitt Romney or of the current incarnation of the national Republican Party. That said my impression from watching the debate Wednesday night was that Romney had a good night and that Obama had a fairly bad one.

Romney, in Federation Commander, terms executed a perfect High Energy Turn, placed himself on a course for the middle of the electorate and began erratic maneuvering, reducing Obama’s incoming fire to shield-scorching inconsequential attacks. 

I did note that Romney still avoided specifics like a vampire dodging the coming dawn, and he campaign is still one that seems reliant upon the idea that the economy is bad and therefore Obama should be tossed.  It remains to be seen if this will be a winning strategy. As In noted a few posts ago, the wind had been at Obama’s back and Romney at that time was still playing to the right side of the field. In a week I’m going to take another good long look at the number from several sources and see just how much this has moved things in the Republican favor. (I don’t doubt that there will be movement, the question in my mind is how much. Less than 2 points leave the race close but unchanged, 2-3 points will be good for Romney, but not commanding, above 3 will be ahistorical and possible very bad for Obama.)

Personally I thought Obama had more facts on his side, he detailed more policy, and was less manipulative of the truth than Romney, but he looked tired, distracted, and unwilling to engage and in a battle of perceptions he clearly lost.

So September is coming to an end and election day is rapidly approaching. (When you consider early voting, election day is, for all practical purposes, already upon us.) There is little time left and from where I sit it looks like Obama has the wind at his back while Romney is still patching up and assuaging the relations with his base. This is not where you want to be in the final weeks ofUSpresidential campaign.

If I were forced to make a prediction today I would bet on Obama winning the election. This, of course, is hardly a done deal and a surprise or two could upset the race, but the odds of such events are dropping with each passing day. I doubt the Democratic arty will take the House, that is a tall hill to climb (Pun intended), but they hold the senate if the momentum continues growing for them. Certainly the republican Party thinks so, hence their cautious overtures to return to support Todd ‘Legitimate Rape’ Akin in his Senate bid, despite the toxic effect this has had on the women’s vote.

Oh my party in November is going to be interesting.