Tag Archives: Democrats

Post election comments

Well, the Republicans both over performed and under-performed for my expectations.

60+ seats is a huge wave one that normally crushes everything beneath it. However, the senate remains in Democratic hands the only question is by how much. Oregon may go Democratic still. Alaska? No way, but right now the Republican and tea-party favorite Joe Miller is behind.

I was surprised to see the democrats hold onto both Colorado and Nevada. I though the wave would be strong enough to sweep both states, but apparently you can be too outside the main stream for even this wave. Frankly I am happy to have Angle and O’Donnell loss their bids.

Now the hard part come in for the Republicans. If the tea Party truly is an independent movement and not the Republican Party in Fancy Dress they are going to expect that this new Congress do more than just snipe from the sidelines. However if this Congress moves against big budget items that are popular — such as Medicare and Social Security — which they will have to do to balance the budget, they’ll see their number tumbles.

As we heard often during the health care debates the Senior Citizens hates socialized Medicine and love Medicare.

There are of course people already talking about what this mean for 2012. Dudes. it is way too early to speak about that.

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Vegas continued

So if you read the postings I made during the trip then you pretty much know how I spent Saturday afternoon. What you do not know is the extent of political ads I was forced to endure.

Once I reach vegas itself I stopped using the ipod in the car. I listened at the Ipod by way of a small fm transmitter and there were so many FM stations in Vegas it was difficult to find a clear channel for my own music. Because of this and the TV in my room, (Cable but no premium channels.) I saw and heard a lot of political ads during those three days.

I never saw one ad that was pro-Sharon Angel. Oh there were endless ads anti-Harry Reid. Some of them quickly tricky. (“Ladies, Harry Reid wants to take away your right to chose.” Without explicitly stating that what they mean is chose your won healthcare.) To me the ads in Nevada were microcosm of the political winds blowing across the country. It isn’t that the Republicans are suddenly popular with their ideas, it’s that the Democrats are taking a pounding.

You can argue it is because of the way the Democrats passed their bills.

You can argue it is because they tried to push the country to far left.

You can argue it is because the economy is in the drain and they’re caught holding the bag.

You can argue it is because Obama is so arrogant and people hate that.

You can argue all these viewpoints on why, but you cannot prove any of them. You can not disentangle the factors enough to prove any single factor is the principle factor in the coming wave. However, the wave is coming, the question is what happens next year with the new Congress.

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color me skeptical.

I’m seriously concerned about the long term financial health of our country. Still, I suspect that the movie this trailer is advertising is a bit one sided. (For one thing it looks like there hasn’t been a  Republican president since Reagan. I seem to remember two with three terms between them.)

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Mid-term predictions

So it’s about three weeks until the elections and it’s time to put my rep on the line. Here’s my rum down — barring any major events that upset the applecart (peachcarts are always ignored, le sigh.)

The Democrats have about 46 solid seats that can be considered safe or not up for re-election, the Republicans have 35, that leaves about 19 seats up for grabs of which the Republicans need 16 to gain a majority. 16 out of 19 that’s a mighty steep hill. But of that 16 they only need 11 pick-ups to gain control.

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Futile post averted

I had done some research for a post about the candidate from Delaware for the U.S. Senate,  Ms. Christine O’Donnell. Frankly I could not imagine supporting such a person for the U.S. Senate. It is not that I am against balancing a terribly out of whack budget. I’m for that. We cannot go on spending money we do not have. The fiddler always shows up for his pay. Always.
It’s that firstly I do not think she is all that serious about budget issues, but beyond that she is simply too irrational to be worthy of support.
I abandoned the post because I realized it would serve absolutely no purpose. If you were supporting her now, you would no matter what I said.
Either her irrationalities are your own, and they do no seem irrational to you. Or you do not see them and do not want to see them. The ‘win’ for your team is more important than the idea that creationism and evolution are simply too co-equal points of view. If this is a trade off you are willing to accept for a win, fine, it is not one I am willing to accept.
Here is where I think our current political system is in real danger. There is no room anymore for someone to be wrong and not be evil.

A clue people, Obama is not Hitler. Bush is not Hitler, hell Saddam Hussein was not Hitler. (He’s literally no body now.) Hitler was Hitler that is the sum total in the Hitler mathematical set. Obama is a liberal, but that does not mean he is evil. Bush was conservative. (Oh, don’t you people on the right scream. There hardly a firestorm of protest against the man when he was in power.) But Bush was not evil.

This insistence that the opposition MUST some despicable evil, akin to Hitler always, and that Fascism or Communism is right around the corner unless we stop them is asinine and idiotic. It will only get worse before it gets better as thanks to fragmentation of the media people are more and more often selecting there information sources so that their biases as confirmed and their villain properly mocked and attacked. This is not information, this is not becoming educated on a subject, it is adopting a religion. A set of guideposts that tell you who is in your tribe, who is out of your tribe and who are the bad guys responsible for the ills of the world.

It is hokum.

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Half full or Half Empty

Of course everyone is familiar with the phrase , is that glass half-full or half-empty as a test for a person viewpoint. I think I have another chart that serves a similar function for the political viewpoint.

So here is a chart showing federal revenues and federal outlays for the US government. As you can see that is a terrible disconnect between what we take in as a government and what we spend as a government. The ultimate source of this disconnect is that people want more services than they are willing to pay for.

If you are a Partisan Republican you focus on the dark blue line and insist that it be bent down until it is under the light blue line. (At least in theory. As the graph clearly shows, the republican did nothing to change the curve of the dark blue line while they were in power.)

If you are a Partisan Democrat you Focus on the light blue line and insist that it be raised until it meets that Dark blue line.  (Of course you ignore how sharply you turned that dark blue line up. That’s An Inconvenient truth.)

Aside from a brief period while the Government was split in the 90’s, we don’t live within our means regardless of the political party in power. It was very recently — election-wise — that Prominent  Republicans informed us that ‘Deficits Don’t Matter’™ before they discovered the horror if deficit spending — if it is a democrat doing the spending. Of course in order to try to curry favor with the majority of the population the Democrats are currently pushing ‘Tax The Rich’™, which of course returns us to people want services but are unwilling to pay for them.

Persoanlly I say both side of the equation must be addresses. We are spending too much and revenues must be raised. We are not going to get our of this hole with wishful thinking. Sadly that is the only thing we have a surplus of.

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The Wave appears to be building.

The aggregate of the generic party preference polls has the Republican Party leading the Democratic Party by over 5 points. (There a lot of buzz on the ‘net today from right leaning blog about the 10 point lead in the Gallop polls, but I trust aggregate polling much more than any single pollster.)

Given that there is not about two months to the election, there’s not a lot of time for thing to change, unless it is change for the worse for the Democratic hopes.)

I have no sat down and looked at the senate races in detail — that is close examination of the number race by race — so I will hew to my feeling that the Senatorial Hill is going to be a much tougher climb than the House, but certainly by no mean impossible.

If the trends lines continue my Right-leaning friends will certainly be celebrating come November, but winning is the easy part. Actually taking a hand to solve the very serious problems our country is in is much much harder.

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Has The Republican Party Learned?

I think it is likely that the Republicans will take control of the House this November. The senate is a much steeper hill to climb, but not out of reach. (Personally I think they’ll miss on the Senate, but I withhold final predictions until we are closer and there is more data.)

Regardless of the Senate, I think just from the House we might see some clues to if the republicans truly have becom serious about debt or if that is all just election year smoke and mirrors.

Defunding Obama’s projects and initiatives will be meaningless data. Simple partisianship will compel them that far. What will be telling is if they are willing to cut any program that they are the proponents for and has serious electoral consequences. (Such as Farm Subsidies.)

Color me pessimistic on the odds of this happening. I think that they, the Republicans, have not spent enough time in the wilderness. They’ll attack Democratic spending with vigor, but I think that their own cows will remain most holy and untouched.

I do not think the  ‘Tea Party’ will drive the Republican into serious thought about debt and spending.

I would be happy to be wrong. I think that all empires fade and this could be the twilight of our own. Unless we get serious about bringing our financial house in order, very dire consequences could befall our nation. Ones too painful and terrible to contemplate.

What signs would you read as proof the Republicans were serious about this issue?

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No Fear

The title of this post is a play on Andrew Sullivan’s ‘Know Fear’ when posting about Sarah Palin.
Sullivan is quite concerned — putting it mildly — that Sarah Palin is going to run for, and win the republican nomination for President. He obsessed on her since the half-term governor was selected for McCain’s running mate.
This week, with Sullivan on vacation, there has been a minor explosion of Palin news as her daughter and estranged boyfriend announced that they were a couple again and planning to wed.
I have no interest in Bristol Palin’s personal life. She’s profiting well from her notoriety I do not blame her in the least. Grab the money while you can. She’s not robbing, scamming, or stealing from anyone so I really don’t care.
However I expect that when Sullivan returns there may be several posts about Levi Johnson — the boyfriend — and that his silence has been bought.
You see Levi had made a series of scathing attacks on Sarah Palin while he was estranged from Bristol and his child by Bristol. Sullivan, blinded by his obsession, (And that’s the problem with obsession it always blinds you) just ate up all the hints and stories Levi told.
Family fights can be nasty brutish affairs full of lies and distortions from all corners and only a fool gets involved in on if he does not have to.
Now, with Levi’s retractions, Sullivan is looking even more foolish on the Palin-front. (He’s also been obsessing on the Trig is not Palin’s son conspiracy. I reject that theory. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and there is no proof there.)

Sullivan can be an engaging and thought writer, but on Plain he’s as fear struck as the those running around screaming socialist at everything Obama does.

I have no fear of Sarah Palin. I have no expectation she will run — as I have mentioned in earlier posts — I have no expectation that if she did run she would win. She is an entertainer who has found her niche and will grow rich from her audience.

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