It is hardly a secret that I am not a supporter of the Mitt Romney or of the current incarnation of the national Republican Party. That said my impression from watching the debate Wednesday night was that Romney had a good night and that Obama had a fairly bad one.

Romney, in Federation Commander, terms executed a perfect High Energy Turn, placed himself on a course for the middle of the electorate and began erratic maneuvering, reducing Obama’s incoming fire to shield-scorching inconsequential attacks. 

I did note that Romney still avoided specifics like a vampire dodging the coming dawn, and he campaign is still one that seems reliant upon the idea that the economy is bad and therefore Obama should be tossed.  It remains to be seen if this will be a winning strategy. As In noted a few posts ago, the wind had been at Obama’s back and Romney at that time was still playing to the right side of the field. In a week I’m going to take another good long look at the number from several sources and see just how much this has moved things in the Republican favor. (I don’t doubt that there will be movement, the question in my mind is how much. Less than 2 points leave the race close but unchanged, 2-3 points will be good for Romney, but not commanding, above 3 will be ahistorical and possible very bad for Obama.)

Personally I thought Obama had more facts on his side, he detailed more policy, and was less manipulative of the truth than Romney, but he looked tired, distracted, and unwilling to engage and in a battle of perceptions he clearly lost.

So September is coming to an end and election day is rapidly approaching. (When you consider early voting, election day is, for all practical purposes, already upon us.) There is little time left and from where I sit it looks like Obama has the wind at his back while Romney is still patching up and assuaging the relations with his base. This is not where you want to be in the final weeks ofUSpresidential campaign.

If I were forced to make a prediction today I would bet on Obama winning the election. This, of course, is hardly a done deal and a surprise or two could upset the race, but the odds of such events are dropping with each passing day. I doubt the Democratic arty will take the House, that is a tall hill to climb (Pun intended), but they hold the senate if the momentum continues growing for them. Certainly the republican Party thinks so, hence their cautious overtures to return to support Todd ‘Legitimate Rape’ Akin in his Senate bid, despite the toxic effect this has had on the women’s vote.

Oh my party in November is going to be interesting.

People wonder why I am skeptical of the GOP on financial issues, well, they should read this article by a former member of the Reagan team, it really lays out in simple terms just how massive of a lie it is that republicans are better with the money than the Democratic party.

So let’s warm up the crystal and see if I can peer into the future.
Let’s say that the Supreme Court upholds the ACA either in it’s entirety in a 5-4, or a more narrow ruling with something like a 6-3 split. (Sounds like bowling for precedents.)
The Republican base, energized by the need to repeal the ACA, recovers their enthusiasm, holds the House, takes the Senate and the White House in the trifecta of American Politics, but their hold on the senate is less than 60 votes.
What happens after that?
Well the Republican base demands that the House pass the repeal of the ACA, Romney says he will sign it, and the Bill goes to the Senate, where the Democrats filibuster it. ACA= tyranny and as tyranny cannot be allowed on a procedural trick, the Republican initiate their nuclear option and destroy the filibuster. The repeal passes on a party line vote, amid a storm in insults, shouting, and images of sick people without healthcare, and Romney signs it.
The filibuster once broken, even if the rules were changed for just one vote and then changed backed, is forever a dead letter. The Republicans, knowing that all power is fleeting, use the newly empowered government to pass tax cuts and changes along more party line votes.
What happens, when it must eventually occur, when the Democrats have the three institutions under their control? Of course they will pass the legislation they have long desired and wanted, using the same techniques with the same party line vote tallies.
This could also start the other way, ACA is struck down, and the Democrats hold the Senate and White House and regain the House. (Fairly unlikely I think.) Then blowing up the filibuster and on a party line vote they sweep into existence a single-payer system. Etc etc.
Of course, by that point, we no longer a system of stable laws and government as each change in power can lead to a whiplash of new laws, repeals, and changes controlled only by the whim of political passions.

This is not a good thing. This scares me.