Tag Archives: Democrats

Suggestions for the GOP

the election of 2012 should have been one favorable to the GOP. The US was still coming out fo a bad economic period, something that usually hurts thee incumbent, and yet no only did they lose the presidency, the Democratic party held the Senate and even gathered more popular votes than the GOP in the house. Only the fact that it’s district by district allowed the GOP to hold onto their majority there.

So here my question – since I do not have a Sunday Night Movie to discuss.

What one or two policy changes would you, if you are a conservative or a Republican, endorse or accept to gather in more votes in the next cycle?

For the liberals and Democratic party members reading, what one or two policy changes could the GOP do that would cause you to reconsider and possibly vote GOP?

Let’s talk Assault Weapon Bans

With the recent tragedies there has been a lot of talk of gun control laws and in particular reviving the Assault Weapon ban from 1990s. I am going to assume the best motives for those people who favor a ban on assault weapons, but in doing so at best I can say is that they are misguided.

Before I get started let me state that I’m working from a couple of premises.

One – That a desire to ban any class of firearms is advanced with an objective of a reduction in firearms deaths.

Two – The whenever anyone proposes a restriction of rights, the burden of proof is on those advocating the restriction. When in doubt I err on the side of granting rights rather than restricting them. Continue reading →

Mini-Review Number 1: Media Malpractice: How Obama Got Elected and Palin Was Targeted

These reviews are not in the order I watched them in, but in just whatever random order they occur to me in terms of what I want to talk about.

This documentary was the least satisfying of all those that I completed. (I will not review any based on a partial viewing, that is not fair to the filmmakers or anyone reading the review.) The premise of the film is that the media, because of a liberal bias, failed to due their due diligence in vetting Obama as a presidential candidate,facilitating his election and damaging the republic. Perhaps this argument could be strongly made, but John Ziegler is not the filmmaker to do it.

This documentary is composed of two major elements. The first element is John Ziegler showing clips from the media coverage of the 2008 presidential election, and narrates in voice over his interpretation of what the clips mean. He doesn’t support the arguments with facts, or testimony, but simply keeps pouring on more and more clips with more and more of his views in what the clips show about the people who made them. There are times when he seems fairly on target and other times when it strikes me as Oz in Buffy would say ‘a radical reintrupretation of the text.’ Without supporting evidence it’s John stating his opinion over and over. Very unpersuasive. Continue reading →

Yup this sounds right to me…

Thoughts on the 2012 Election

Well the election hascome and gone, the Republicans failed to dislodge an incumbent during a lackluster economy and gave up seats in the Senate, but managed to retain their control of the House of Representative.

Three states expanded marriage equality.

Two states have started directly challenging the Federal government on Marijuana.

One southern state turned back an assault on personal physical sovereignty. (I despise the idea of abortion rights, or women’s rights, there are no group rights, only individual rights; the right to decide which elective procedure you have or not done to your body is an issue of person physical sovereignty.)

A territory indicated a desire to become a state.

All in all it was an interesting night of results, so who are the big winners and the big losers?

LOSERS:

The Republicans Party: hanging onto just the house was not enough. The AC A is law and it will stay that way. 2014 Will see the exchanges and then the states that are resisting the exchanges will have to answer to their citizen why they can’t insurance.

Social Conservatives: A whole slate of pro-life candidates lost as their absolutist positions collided with a younger and more tolerate electorate.

Statistical Doubters: If nearly every poll is pointing against your position, and you insist that all the polls are biased, you probably aren’t engaging with reality.

Mitt Romney: He sold his soul, became whatever he thought he needed to be, switched positions more often than a prostitute and in end lost.

WINNERS:

Barack Obama: He avoided the stigma of becoming a one term president. In a climate hostile to re-election he and his team worked the numbers and followed the path to victory.

Nate Silver: 50 for 50 on his state by state projections, and on target with his popular vote predictions. To a lesser degree the pollsters won, catching an unusual voting population that few expected.

The Gay Community: Marriage equality in three states, with popular votes, would be enough to declare a victory, but they also elected the first openly lesbian senator. The times, and the culture, they are a changing.

Young People: Derided as a fluke in 2008 they not only returned to the polls to vote, but increased their number. (I wonder how much Facebook and Social Media played in that. I saw a contestant stream of political messages and urges to vote. If peer pressure is brought consistently to voting then the young vote may be here to stay.)

Women: A record number of women now serve in the senate, including a first, an all female delegation in the House. They beat back attacks on their personal sovereignty rights, and increased their vote share.

Election prediction 2012

Well, here I am making my very public prediction for the outcome of the US elections this cycle. 2012.

I used my usual methods to predict the outcome. A method that has in the past been fairly accurate. I used aggregate polling to determine the baseline, and then I split up the remainder of the undecided based up the right track/wrong track figure. This cycle that means I am giving 60% (I round up to the next whole 10% interval) to Romney and the Repuiblicans, as that are the party out of power with the executive branch.

The results are most unusual and I’d say are likely to be wrong, at least in the popular vote, however I am sticking to my methodology.

Popular Vote: Mit Romney 50.3 to Barack Obama 49.7

However in the electoral college things get hanky;

Barack Obama 275-290 vs Mitt Romney 248-263. Yes this is a misfire where the electoral college and the popular vote goes north and south. They are rare, but they do happen.

Here is the electoral map as I think is most likely:

What are your guesses my brave political commenters?

Final Debate Tonight

Tonight, just two weeks from the election, we’ll be treated to the third and final presidential debate. The subject, in theory, is foreign policy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if things wander a bit.

I shan’t be watching this one in real time as I have a meeting of the Mysterious galaxy Writers Support Group and I try to never miss a meeting. This support group has been a real factor in my improvement as a writer. Two years ago when the group started I had just finished my novel “Cawdor,” and looking back at the manuscript I can see such improvement in style that it surprises me.

So where do we stand in the Presidential election race?

As of 10/22

RCP: Romney +0.3

TPM: Obama +1.5

Pollster: Romney +0.1

INtrade: Obama + $2.23

Last Tuesday the numbers were:

RCP: Romney +.04

TPM: Obama +1.1

Pollster: Romney +.03

INtrade: Obama +$2.37

This is a far cry from the numbers of 9/29

RCP: Obama +4.3

TPM: Obama +3.9

Pollster: Obama +4.4

Intrade: +$5.71

It looks to me that the race has settled down into a very close heat, and the fluctuations over the last two weeks have primarily been noise in the system. Romney’s advance after the first debate has pretty much held. Right now I’d give the popular vote edge to Romney, but that may not translate into being election due toAmerica’s unusual system of presidential elections knows as the Electoral College.

Just as in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college we could have a misfire or even a tie. Of course a tie in this election would mean a Romney win as there are more red states than blue and each state would get 1 vote for determining the presidency. To make this an even more messed up situation the House only determines the presidency, the Senate votes for the vice-president. That means if the Democrats controlled the Senate we could have President Romney and Vice-President Biden.

Movement, but not much

So instead of waiting a full week to see if the polls have moved after the vice-presidential debate, I’m taking a look at them today as to remove any effect of the second presidential debate.

The numbers as they stood six days ago on 10 Oct 2012

RCP: Romney +1

TPM Polltracker: Romney +2.4

Pollster: Romney +1

Intrade: Obama + $2.57

The same measurement today:

RCP: Romney +0.4

TPM Polltracker: Romney +1.1

Pollster: +0.3

INtrade: Obama $2.37

So three of the indicators moves in Obama/Biden’s direction, while the fourth moved in Romnny’s. What movement there was in Obama’s direction was weak and hardly indicative of a major change in the electorate, which seems to be the case in the movement towards Romney after the 1^st debate.

Unless something breaks, this looks to be a tight race. There are only three weeks left before election day and for team Obama the stumble in Denver is proving to be one that is dogging their heels. With a weak recovery following a financial crisis they had little room for error, and yet still went into the debate wholly unprepared.

I had read that the debate stand for Romney was John Kerry. Really? That’s a poor choice in my opinion, one I think that might have been a factor. (But certainly not the sole and or prime factor.)

Quick Impressions from the vice-presidential debate

I think that this was the first time I have watched, front to back, an entire vice-presidential debate. This has proved to be a volatile election and in this environment the side-show has the possibility of effecting the center ring action.

My quick impression is that Biden won the debate, he kept Ryan on the defensive most of the night, though this was by no means a blow-out like the first presidential debate. It was also close enough that partisan from either side will claim victory.

One – of many- exchanges that caught my attention was Ryan on abortion. I am pro-choice, I do not agree with the concept that conception is the point at which we should be legally bound to recognize full human rights. Ryan’s answer though went beyond simply the mine field of abortion and into the nature of religious thought and its place in government. It goes too far into mixing the two.

RYAN: I don’t see how a person can separate their public life from their private life or from their faith. Our faith informs us in everything we do. My faith informs me about how to take care of the vulnerable, of how to make sure that people have a chance in life.

A Critical Stumble

Well it has been one week since the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney and boy did that shake up the race. In my post about the debate I suggested that a Romney gaining more than three points would be ahistorical and very bad news for President Obama.

So let’s take a look at some numbers. When I suggest that Obama had the wind at his back here are the number I used to support that contention.

9/29

RCP poll of Polls        Obama +4.3

TPM polltracker       Obama +3.9

Pollster                       Obama +4.4

INtrade Obama+ $5.71 (7.85 vs 2.14)

Things looked good for the president, but in the debates Obama fumbled his diplomacy roll (Yea, I know skills rolls don’t have fumbles, but he still managed to do it.) Romney pivoted to the center and pulled off a very good debate performance.

Here are those same metrics as of today.

10/10

RCP Romney +1

TPM Polltracker        Romney +2.4

Pollster                       Romney +.1

Intrade                       Obama +$ 2.57 (6.34 vs 3.77)

That’s a 5.3 loss in the RCP averages, 6.3 in the TPM polltracker, 5.4 in Pollsters aggregate poll. This is frigging huge. The race is not over, but there is less than a month until the election and this is a very bad time to throw away your lead. Liberal partisan have been wailing, Andrew Sullivan going into full President Palin Panic, while the conservatives have been as giddy as a fanboy on a date with Natalie Portman

What I find curious is that the state by state still favors Obama, but not by much. Frank.ly I think this increases he chance of another misfire, where the popular vote and the electoral vote go north and south.

My November 6 party may run late after all.

Robert Mitchell Evans

Literary Saboteur