Category Archives: Politics

An Open Letter to Senators: Romney, Murkowski, and Sasse

The United States of America joined in the first World War to ‘Make the world safe for Democracy.’

We fought in the Second World War to defeat fascism in the west and in the east, liberating millions of people and bringing them into the light of self-governance.

We stood with the United Nations and saved the people of South Korean from subjugation by the anti-democratic forces of communism.

Our nation stood guard and paid with both blood and treasure to defend the free world against the tyranny of Soviet Communism defending the rights of all people to self-determination.

In the struggle for self-determination and democratic ideals the Republican Party led the way, always ready to defend democracy.

Today, that party stands against democracy.

It stands against free, fair, and legitimate elections favoring power over principle. GOP’s leading voices are calling to the disenfranchisement of millions of Americans, to subvert and overthrow an election that they lost for the ego and greed of one man, to make a mockery of a century of defending freedom, and the leadership of the party shows no intention to rebuke or punish those throwing aside our most cherished ideal, self-determination.

The new Senate is coming into session and normally the decision with which party to caucus is scarcely a decision at all, but these are scarcely normal times. To caucus with the Republican Party is to reward that party for its anti-democratic behavior with an extension of the power it is already abusing.

No reduction of marginal tax rates will erase that fact.

No amount of sensible de-regulation will defend our elections.

No appeal to traditional values will restore the defense of democracy.

If you caucus with the Republican party the good works you have done will be destroyed and you will simply be part of the machinery griding to dust what has been built for generations. That is a deeply unpleasant fact.

If you caucus with the Democratic Party, the entire conservative community will turn on you like ravenous wolves and it is likely that you will lose your positions and your offices, but you will not be destitute, none of you, and it is best to remember that hundreds of thousands of Americans have died for these rights and these ideals and now it is your turn to sacrifice so much less than they did.

The choice is yours and yours alone.

You three have the power, no matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, to decide the course of this nation and your party and for better or worse it is what you will be remembered for.

 

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Political Legitimacy is a Shared Fantasy

I remember clearly from one of my Political Science courses the professor asking the class, “When is a government Legitimate?” The answer is when people accept it as legitimate. There is no objective test, rule, or criteria that can be applied to determine legitimacy it is something acquired through consensus often an unspoken and intuitive attitude.

Donald Trump and worse yet major elements of the Republican Party have gravely and perhaps irreparably damaged the legitimacy of the U.S. Government.

Andrew Jackson, a president many hold in contempt, still recognized the legitimacy of the government even after losing in what he considered by way of ‘a corrupt bargain,’ in 1824.

Richard Nixon after losing a closely fought campaign in 1960 to Kennedy, a campaign that many felt had been influenced by potential corruption from Chicago, recognized the new Administration’s legitimacy.

Al Gore, after losing critical court battles but winning the nation’s popular vote, conceded the election to Bush and did not challenge the process as illegitimate.

In each of these cases there were some who refused to accept the outcome as legitimate. There always are but critically not the principals involved. Not the candidate themselves and not the leaders of the parties, this is not the case for the 2020 Presidential contest.

Trump is a lying narcissist, a damaged emotional wreck of a human being immature and unable to act in any manner other than greedy self-interest. (An Objectivist hero you might say.) His refusal to accept that he actually lost the election was not only predictable but heavily predicted. Because he occupies the office of POTUS that alone is enough to damage faith in the government’s legitimacy but when his refusal became a litmus test for national Republicans the damage to our nation grew.

Cowed, subjugated, and terrified of the base that they had spent decades cultivating GOP politicians refused to acknowledge the truth that Trump had lost. They filed laughable suits, they implored state government to overturn the election and made motions to disenfranchise millions of voters. And those that did not participate in these direct assaults on the very nature of our government turned a blind eye to the carnage, implored that this was simply ‘the process’ and coddled the mad child-king as he shredded faith in our system, as he destroyed legitimacy.

Foolishly they believe that once the administration has passed, they will be able to return to a pre-Trump state, but time flows in only one direction and it can never be rewound. The bell has been struck, millions of people now believe that this election was illegitimate, and that the new administration is inherently criminal.

I fear that McConnel, Fox News, and all the rest have given birth to many more Cesar Sayocs.

 

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Reagan’s Party is Dead

Love him, loath Him, or be utterly indifferent to him there’s no denying that Ronald Reagan stood at the head of a massive movement in American Politics. Where Goldwater failed Reagan succeeded at seizing the Republican from the ‘Rockefellers’ and made it into the American Conservative Party. Ever since his victory over Carter in 1980 and his follow-up unprecedented 49 state crushing of Mondale in 84 Reagan has been the standard and the platonic ideal for every GOP national candidate until Trump.

The horrid truth, I think it is horrid no matter from where you approach it on the political spectrum except as a Trumpist is that Trump now commands the GOP more than Reagan.

In 1980 Reagan won nearly 44 million votes, about 19% of the entire American population supported him. 1984’s titanic victory came with Reagan winning 54.5 million votes and increasing the percentage of the population that supported him to 23%. (These percentage are of all people in the United States not just those eligible or just those who bothered to vote.)

With the 2016 election while losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college Trump gathers 62.9 Million votes, about 19% of the total population, comparable to Reagan’s popularity with more raw votes.

This year’s election the results are looking like Trump increased his vote total to 74.1 million votes representing a popular support of about 22% very nearly the same as Reagan’s but with a fanatical base of support willing to discount actual facts about the election outcome and equally willing to jettison decades of conservative positions for personal loyalty to Trump.

It has been 32 years since the GOP’s idol occupied the White House and with Trump his ghost has been exorcised from the party. The first real test of Trump command of the party and its candidates will come next month when we see how many national Republicans are willing the incur the child-king’s by attending the Inauguration of the new president.

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Why is Trump’s Support So Damned Stable?

Why is Trump’s Support So Damned Stable?

One undeniable fact of the entire Trump administration and his candidacy both in 2016 and 2020 is that his popular support from the voters of the Republican party remained steadfastly high no matter the external factors.

When Trump arrived on the major political landscape via that golden escalator ride down, (in cinema elevators and escalators down are symbols of trips to hell but this was for us and not for him though time will ultimately tell) he leapt to the head of the GOP pack has remained there ever since.

His policy proposals were outlandish and often violated Republican ideology such as promising to raise taxes on the wealthy and promising to give every American access to full, cheap health care. Some took this to be a sign that the GOP base didn’t have the same policy desires as the GOP elite.

Once in office however his administration when it took decisive legislative stands stood firmly for the usual GOP goals including a massive budget busting tax cut for the wealthy, a legislative attempt to repeal the ACA, continuing judicial attempt to repeal the ACA, and massive deregulation. Hardly the package he ran on, but his voters clung tighter to him.

Trump also repeatedly violated GOP trade policy, instigating trade wars that directly and adversely impacted the rural communities that are the core of GOP voter support, but the GOP voters stayed true to the man.

A pandemic swept the nation and as of this writing a quarter of a million American have died of the disease and Trump shows no remorse, no sympathy, and no cares for anything dealing with the outbreak other than his own political fortunes and yet his support from the GOP voters is unwavering.

His corruption and graft are plain. His administration is filled with people charged with serious crimes. He turned a blind eye when an American resident was murdered. Unemployment exploded. But his support is unchanged.

Why?

He has given them judges, but all Republican presidents have given the base the judges that lean towards gun right and restricting abortion and yet their approval rantings rise and fall with the news unlike Trump’s.

The answer may lie in what has remained unchanged in Trump since that escalator ride. It isn’t policy. It isn’t programs or the economy or the health and wealth of the nation.

It is his petty vindictive cruel treatment of those not of his tribe. The mocking, insulting, crude treatment of all those outside of his circle and the circle that his base consider ‘true Americans’ is his only constant. This is what they love. This is the clarion horn that calls them to battle and devote themselves to this corrupt man.

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The New Soviet Man

The New Soviet Man

The central and critical element off a democratic system is that the loser of a contest accepts defeat and legitimizes the contest. Without this there is no democracy. The Soviets of the USSR allowed no elections because they were unwilling to accept any result which did not validate their authority. One party rule assures that you never, ever have to concede. Concession is democratic and refusing to concede is anti-democratic.

Trump refuses to concede. The GOP, with few exceptions, is either actively refusing to concede along with him or playing silent and hoping that their cowardice is unnoticed. Trump and the GOP are being anti-democratic.

Let’s be clear. This is not ‘waiting for the process.’ The process as it had been established and conducted for generations has been followed except by Trump and his acolytes. The votes are tabulated, when one candidate has a lead that mathematically can’t be over some by the remains votes the state is called, when enough states are called that the candidate has more than 270 electoral college votes that candidate is then the President-Elect.

In November 2016, to this nation’s horror, that was Trump when he breached the ‘Blue Wall’ and won WI by 22,748 votes, MI by 10,704, and PA by 44,292. Neither his opponent nor the Democratic party refused to concede for weeks, He was the President-Elect.

Biden has rebuilt the ‘Bule Wall’ with his victories in WI by 20,546, MI by 147,393, and PA by 66,334 and with the additional victories in AZ and GA his election is unassailable. No recount, which typically shifts votes by about 500, is going to change this outcome. Joe Biden is the President-Elect. To insist that Biden shouldn’t be referred to as President-Elect is undemocratic, undermine faith in the integrity of the election, and fuels the dangerous conspiracy theory that vast voter fraud is responsible for Trump defeat. With millions of devoted followers, some of whom who have already acted with political violence, remember the mail bombs sent to Democratic politicians, this is not only dangerous to our political institutions but to the citizenry as well.

Each supporter of the conservative movement has a choice, accept the results of a free and fair election by rebuking Trump and his lies or refuse to concede, damage our democracy, and become the New Soviet Man.

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Another Cliffhanger

I despise cliffhangers. Books that leave you in a lurch for 20 years, television programs that think it’s cool to have massive dramatic shifts at the close of a season, and nail-biting presidential elections, all are terribly frustrating.

As I write this the states called for Biden total to 253 electoral college votes with Trump’s total coming up to 214. Biden needs just 17 more to win the election, Pennsylvania does it, as do any two of the other five so the odds favor Biden but until the votes are tabulated we will not know.

What is clear is that the massive crushing destruction of Trumpism has not occurred. Even if Trump is defeated, which seems likely, the electoral attraction of Trumpism will remain a potent force in Republican politics. His blatant racism, sexism, and cruelty will be a weapon available for politician with an equal lack of moral but with great talent and intelligence to wield against ‘the others.’

White, male, grievance politics are not equivalent to conservatism, but they have displaced conservatism as the motivating force in GOP ideology. There are valid issues and questions that can be approached from a conservative perspective, what is the proper role of government in the economy? where does the line lie between an individual’s rights and the collective good? These questions have nothing to do with wanting to ‘own the libs’ or inflecting suffering solely for the point of suffering. There is nothing conservative is disregarding the painful death of nearly a quarter of a million Americans because it is disruptive to your election or ignoring the rule of law because adhering to it brings a painful price.

America’s future is very much in doubt.

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The Final Six Days — Hopefully

America’s presidential election day, the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November, is next week. Where once this day represented the day voters actually went to the polls and cast their ballots this year more than every it is the termination day following weeks of voting and with luck and a motivated electorate, we may have the election’s resolution Tuesday.

If the election is close and with a number of states not counting their mailed in ballots until election day itself it could be days or even weeks before we know the outcome, notwithstanding other intruding events such as court challenges attempting to shut down vote counting early. One persistent fear is that of a ‘red mirage.’ Because supporters of the President are more likely to discount the dangers of the pandemic they had been telling pollsters that they plan to vote in person while Independent and Democratic voters have stated a clear preference for mailed ballots. This could lead to a situation where votes cast in person and reported election night favor Trump but are no reflective of the final result because mailed ballots have yet to be counted. However, if the turnout is high and the results are not close then the hazard of a red mirage is far less likely.

As of this writing 538’s average of national polls has Biden with a lead of 8.5 points and their election model is projecting his odds of winning at 88%, significantly better Hillary Clinton’s odds at this point last cycle.

I am still hoping and can see it is far from impossible that not only does Biden crush Trump is a 1980 style route but that the GOP suffers massive defeats at every level of government throughout the union.

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Quick Hits

Suffering a little headache so just a few quick observations and notes this morning.

My Work in Progress novel is coming along nicely, 11,000 words on the rough draft and exploring/discovering aspect of the story within the confines of the outline has been going well.

I have been re-watching Downfall about the final days in Hitler bunker as the Soviets take Berlin and frankly it feels like I am spying on Trump Campaign Headquarters with true Believers unable to accept reality, bootlickers scrambling to save themselves, and rank and file only just realizing that they have been led by a madman to their doom.

Did not watch the Presidential debates. Any event, however unimaginable, that would dissuade me from voting against Trump will be far larger than any verbal contest.

Going to spend at least some time this weekend with a virtual convention.

Have fun everyone.

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But 2020 is 2020

Yesterday I gave you a number of reasons why the election in 2020 is not a repeat of 2016 with plenty of nuggets to raise your spirits and cool your fears. Today we are going in the other direction and I’m going to go over a few possibilities how this election could go wrong. And by go wrong I mean yield an illegitimate result. Trump is very unpopular and has a practically non-existent chance to win the popular vote and very slim chance, 13% as of today at 538, but we have more to fear this go around than another electoral misfire.

1) Who decides on the electors?

In our system we do not actually vote for president we vote for a slate of elector to represent our state at the electoral college who had promised to vote for our choice in the presidential contest. In some states it is not force of law that selects the electors and there is nothing legally from preventing a legislature from voting to send a slate of electors of their choosing. So, if Florida goes by a bare margin to trump thee governor and thee state legislature could simply choose to ignore the results and send a GOP slate delivering the state’s electoral college votes to Trump. If Trump is defeated soundly in a number of states this avenue of election rigging is closed off but if it comes down to a single state and the GOP control the state it is a possibility.

2) A Delay in Certifying the Electors.

If the election and the electors are not certified in time, then a state may not send their electors to the college to vote on the president. Such an outcome could make it impossible for any candidate to cross the 270 line in which case the selection of president would be made by the House of Representatives with each state having one vote. There has been reporting that the Trump campaign have been readying a large number of lawyers to contest elections and slate of electors in a number of states with the intention of not winning these legal challenges but consuming so much time that the electors cannot be certified and throwing the election to the house.

The Congress that would vote in the new president is the incoming class and there have also been reports that the Democrats under the leadership of their Speaker have been targeting particular House Seats with an eye focused on gaining control of a majority of state delegation in addition to their current majority in total members.

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Why 2020 is Not 2016

There are at the time of this writing 20 days until the United States Official Election day though people are voting now by mail and in person by way of early voting and the possibility remains that closer than expected contest may delay results by days or weeks.

As we approach the critical time for our republic and for the world many people are having tense fearful reactions to Biden lead in the polls recalling Clinton’s lead that evaporated and left the nation dealing with a narcissistic corrupt man-child at the head of our government. While the only poll that reallymatters is the actual vote tally here are a few reasons to keep in mind as to why 2020’s election is not the same as 2016’s.

1) Joe Biden is not as a reviled figure as Hillary Clinton.

Rightly or wrongly Clinton carried 30 years of negative political baggage creating a contest between two despised candidates. That dynamic is missing entirely.

2) Joe Biden is consistently breaking the 50% barrier in polling.

Hillary Clinton while often outpolling Trump rarely if ever managed to score above 50% in the polls and in the final weeks of the campaign remained below that critical measure.

3) There are no major third-party candidates.

In an election as tight as 2016 with the outcome turning on less than a few hundred thousand votes nationally the presence of third-party vote drainers such as Jill Stein proved critical.

4) 2016’s ‘unthinkable’ is our reality.

In 2016 is was commonly accepted wisdom that the electorate simply would not elect Trump as President. Despite 538’s giving Trump a 1 in 3 chance of emerging victorious people simply assumed it would not happen but in 2020 we have sadly been forced to accept that it can and that it did happen. Now no one dismisses Trump’s chances as ‘unthinkable.’

5) The polling has been unusually stable.

Look at the charts from 2016 and you’ll see wild gyrations in support for the two candidates but in 2020 the difference between Trump and Biden has been fluctuating over just a few points and never enough to cause the two to swap places. Biden’s lead has remained at 6-8 points for months.

6) Trump is no longer an unknown.

While Trump in 2016 possessed in some people’s mind at almost unknown potential as President in 2020 his qualities are well known. It is now plain to all but his core support that the erratic, ignorant, insulting, and racist style reflects who he truly is and now merely a ‘show.’

7) The Electorate is motivated.

Voter turnout in 2016 was depressed and Trump winning the election received a lower percentage of votes than Romney’s losing campaign in 2012 but in 2020 early voting, mail-in voting, and fund raising all indicated a high energized voting population on track to shatter all voter turnout records.

8) 207,557 dead Americans.

2016 did not provide the stark and undeniable reality of with candidates’ failure to manage a crisis such as COVID-19 has done for the Trump administration. From the face that Trump was aware of the deadly nature early and tried to ignore it, to the reports that the administration’s considers death’s in ‘Blue States’ unimportant Trump’s handling of the pandemic has demonstrated clearly, plainly, and lethally he is utterly unfit for the office and the price we will all pay if he remains in it.

All that said the most important thing is to VOTE. In person, early, or by mail, no poll matters but that one.

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