As this graphic from the New York Times shows support for the movement Black Lives Matter has grown significantly in recent year going from ‘underwater’, that is more people opposed to popular support and I have a few guesses as to why things changed so radically.

First off, the video of George Floyd’s killing was particularly horrifying. That is not to say other deaths at the hand of the police were not horrific but rather this particular video captures the horror in a unique and unsettling fashion, dismantling many of the common rebuttals employed when this sort of event occurs. George was restrained, non-violent, and pleading but still the officer callously, cruelly, and lethally knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes. There was no ‘split-second’ moment that can be used as ‘justification’ for an overreaction, there was no physical struggle, there was no ‘it looked like he had a gun,’ there was a helpless man fully under authority’s control begging to breathe. Just describing it is horrifying .

But it could possibly be dismissed as a single event and not something that would move masses of people previously unconcerned with BLM to now support the movement, so George’s cruel killing while a significant factor doesn’t explain the movement to support that started before this evil event.

I think it is vitally important to notice that support went from a net negative to positive two years after the election of Trump.

Tribalism is a powerful factor in human emotions and behavior. Someone as inconsequential as the outcome a game can generate fantastic passions purely from the tribalism of the team’s fans. It’s been well document in political science that people once they have selected a party that they identify with over time modify and change their position of issue to fit better within their tribe. You may go over to a particular party for issue A, but drift to support the party on B, C, D and so on. This I think has a large bearing on the BLM movement as we see it today.

For those paying close attention Trump’s racist history was well known when he was a candidate, but most people do not pay close attention to politics or a candidate’s history. For those people Trump was a billionaire, a businessman, a builder and a celebrity. Trump’s support has never been a majority and after two year of constant exposure and coverage his incompetence, cruelty, and racism became obvious helping to sort people into pro and anti-Trump factions.

Trump’s position on BLM is clear and obvious so if someone has identified themselves as Anti-Trump the natural and default position is to support Black Lives Matter. This leads to the question is this support durable? What happens post Trump?

I think it is durable. Some people will have come to their support through thoughtful reflection and some will have come out of reflexive opposition to Trump and his tribe, but neither will be inclined to reverse themselves. It is not human nature to publicly admit error and so their support will remain.

But only time will tell.