Barring extraordinary circumstances, and really how likely is that (*cough cough*) we have our contenders for the 2020 United States presidential contest this fall, Trump and Biden. As we look forward to the elect it is instructive to look back at the last cycle and consider some of the things that worked in Trump’s favor in that election and ask how they may have changed for this one.

First off, Biden is not Hillary Clinton. For whatever reason and however large a part misogyny may have played a part in it, Hillary Clinton carried 30 years of vicious political baggage going into that November. Clinton’s candidacy provoked intense reactions that appear to be absent, fairly or unfairly, with Biden. I am not diagnosing why, only observing the effect. Biden is not attempting to counter such levels of visceral hate robbing Trump of that advantage.

In 2016 for those inclined to be charitable Trump was an unknown. There existed in the air the expectation that the immense responsibilities of the office could not leave any person unchanged and that would lead to Trump becoming ‘presidential.’ I think that there was also an attitude that disregarded all of the troubles reporting on trump, his behavior, his disregard for the truth, as simply part of politics and thus turned such things into a non-factor. After a term as president, Trump character is fully revealed and his approval number show that he’s had a difficult time convincing anyone beyond his base of his worthiness.

Perhaps the most important difference between the 2016 and 2020 elections is that it is no longer considered an impossibility that Trump can win.

Five Thirty-Eight on the eve of the election gave the odds of a Trump victory as 1 in 3 and they were roundly mocked for that assessment as so many thought it was by far too generous to Trump.

The L.A. Times predicted an electoral college victory for Clinton of 332 to 206.

Fox News favored Clinton in the E.C. with 274 to 215.

The Associated Press had her at 274 to 190.

The accepted consensus view was that the election was a mere formality to Clinton claiming the presidency and that the evening would prove to be terrible dull of political watchers.

What happened was that by a margin of about 70,000 votes in three states Clinton lost the electoral college. How many people stayed home because they ‘knew’ the outcome? How many people didn’t bother to vote because they ‘knew’ that there was no need to stop Trump because he had already lost? If you ‘know’ that the lying, racist, fool can’t win there’s no need to put yourself through the psychological trauma of ‘holding your nose’ and voting for someone you dislike. It doesn’t matter.

But of course, it did matter.