In the spring of 1918 Germany, dominant nation of the Central Powers launched a massive assault on the Western Front, smashing through defensive trench lines and advancing miles. From one perspective this looked as though it may change the course of the war and could possibly force the Entente Powers to agree to a peace on terms favorable to Germany and the Central Powers. However this display of strength was an illusion. German’s offensive soon lost momentum, stalled, and then was reversed by the Entente and in November of that same year the Central Powers, wracked by shortages, mutinies, and revolution, capitulated. On the surface during that offensive Germany had appeared powerful but this masked critical shortages of food, fuel, minerals, and men. Senior official in the Kaiser’s government had warned in 1917 that Germany could no longer win the war with a military strategy but these warning has been ignored for a futile show of strength.

I’ve been thinking about illusionary strength and how that may apply to the current state of the Republican Party and Conservatism in general for American politics. The most recent election gave the House of Representative to the Democratic Party and what looks to be a two seat addition for the Republicans and there is a tendency to read this as a slit decision but like the German military in early 1918 I think behind the stern facade the Republicans are starving for resources.

In every demographic category save one, white males without a college degree, the Republican Party is bleeding support. The suburbs, once an unassailable Republican redoubt and even Orange County home to Reagan and Nixon, has moved to supporting the Democratic party, and this has happened during a period of relative peace and with unemployment under four percent.

There is a tendency to blame Trump for this dismal showing in the midterms, and his unpopularity is a critical factor but the party tiled the soil to make Trump not only possible but also inevitable. In 2020 it is very unlikely that Trump will be substantially more popular and should there be an economic reversal or some other calamity he could be an even greater drag on the Conservatives as they head into an election to will determine the districts for a decade.

But beyond Trump what do they have to offer? I can think of no policy position that popular with the general electorate. I do not know if it is too late for the Republicans to change course, electoral politics tends to move slowly and change over generations, but I do believe that they must try and or they will end up on the shoals.