As millions go to the polls here are a few thoughts about the current state affairs in our nation.

I wonder where is this populism’s popularity? Trump and his take over of the GOP is often branded as populist and yet not only is Trump himself unpopular but I struggle to think of any policy that he or his administration has chased or achieved that is popular with the general population. Not his tax policies, not his immigration policies, not his health care policies, not his foreign policies, none of these are generally approved, so what exactly is his populism?

It is with sad amusement that I watch in some friends the death of political cynicism. It is good that the cynicism has died but it is sad that it took an event as extreme as the election of a racist con man to the presidency to bring it about. A few years ago I stood on the stoop of a store after hours discussing politics with a group of writers and one voiced the cynicism masquerading as wisdom that it didn’t matter who you voted for because all politicians were the same. I was rebuffed when I countered that it always mattered and now that person is a fervent member of the resistance. This particular bit of cynicism is often found in the young and is used by them to justify their non-participation, hopefully along with my friend this has been burned out of millions. Voting always matters.

Speaking of youth that brings to mind the saying, often attributed to Churchill that if one is not a liberal by 18 then you have no heart and if you are not a conservative by 30 you have no brain. Not only is this misattributed and terribly simplistic studies by political scientist have shown that it is wrong. In general the political beliefs that people form as young adult tend to remain their core value throughout their lives. Additionally what forms their core political beliefs as young adults is not careful consideration of competing philosophies but the major political events, moods, and crises of their times. If the Vietnam War drove you left you tended to stay left the rest of your life, the same for Reagan pulling you right, and that makes me wonder what will be the generational impact on our politics by Trump?

Nate Silver has said that his model’s predictions, 85% of a Democratic House and about the same for a Republican Senate has a 40% chance of being wrong in one of those contests. A 40% chance that either the GOP retains total control of the legislature or that they lose it all. If that were to happen, in either direction, the political earthquake will be felt and its aftershocks, for years. I think our current period, the last two years, would appear as the calm before the storm.