As I write this the morning of October 23rd with the midterm elections just two weeks away the political site fivethrityeight.com is giving the Democratic Party an 82.8 percent chance of taking control of the House of Representative and the Republican Party an 81.0 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate. (With an additional 80 percent chance that the Democratic Party with gain either one seat or lose none.) This election cycle the statisticians at the site have included a model for the various Governors elections and they current favor the Democratic Party to win the top executive positions in thee states of Illinois and Florida with George and Ohio being rated as toss-up and Arizona leaning towards the Republicans but not a safe lock.

Some of this movement can be attributed to the normal US electoral process of the midterms swinging against the party that won the last Presidential elections and some of it is also a reaction to the specific presidency of Donald Trump. Within the Republican Party itself Trump remains very popular and many GOP candidates across the country are emulating him making his style and positions the Republican brand. Whether this is merely a strong reaction the current President, his policies and his party’s adoption of these planks or a genuine ‘blue wave’ that could be strong enough to sweep the opposition party into power in both the House and the Senate will not be know for a fortnight. Even a modestly good showing by the Democratic party, taking the House and several governorship while leaving the Senate in GOP hands, will dramatically influence the future American landscape. With the House the Democrats will be able to launch investigations into suspected corruption at the heart of the presidency and with governorship of large important states they will be able to use the 2020 redistricting to mitigate the GOP gerrymanders from the 2010 census. These gains, even just the modest ones, will also begin the rebuilding of the Democratic bench that was destroyed during the Obama administration when the party ignored state and local contests, surrendering the field to GOP control, a mistake the Democratic party now seems to have finally recognized.

It is ironic to consider what world we would likely be facing if the 2016 presidential election had turned out differently, if the ‘blue wall’ had held and Hillary Clinton had won that contest. A second Clinton presidency would not have provoked a ‘resistance’ and aside from unhappy ‘Berrnie’ supporters the Democratic Party would have mostly asleep at the switch. The House and Senate, safely in GOP control, and despite a strong economy, the midterms would have most likely eroded President Clinton’s number in both chambers, while an un-energized base would have left the states and local control uncontested, teeing the GOP for another round of favorable gerrymandering following 2020. Even if Hillary won her reelection bid, incumbency is a powerful in any election; it is probable that by 2024 would have seen a procedural bias strongly in the Republican’s favor.

I am not arguing that the election of Trump was a good thing. He has done too much damage to our institutions, our political norms, and our standing in the world for his election be considered a good thing. His administration’s drive to defined transgender person out of existence will make Washington D.C. the Nuremberg of the Potomac. His admiration of dictators and his blind eye towards their crimes makes a mockery of our morality and his corruption debases the very concept of the rule of law. Trump is doing serious, lasting, and possible permanent damage to the Union but there is hope and despair is only for those who can foresee the future with perfect clarity.