First off let me set a couple of ground rules if you’re going to comment. 1) If you’re liberal/left/progressive, I am not interested in snarky insulting comments. Insults are not discourse. 2) If you are right/Republican/conservative I’m not interested in ‘Squirrel’ posts where you start pointing a finger at liberals/Democrats and such. This post is about Republicans, not Democrats.
I watching the current primary season and I just can’t fully fathom what if going on with the Republican Party. As I type this the top two leading candidates (Trump and Carson) for president of the united states are polling a combined 48.8 percent and neither is a person who would normally be considered a serious contender for the position.
Setting aside philosophical and policy issues, it perfectly fine to have deep and serious disagreement with many of the stands presented by the Republican Party, heaven knows I do, what going on right now is bonkers.
Look at what has happened already in the race. Two governors, both with re-elections under their belt, were tossed aside, never seriously considered by the general population of the party while a carnival barker and surgeon without any government executive experience rocket to the top. Right now the distance from Carson to the next leading contender (Rubio) is a whopping 13 points. People with real standing and real experience as trailing what should be fringe candidates.
This is not normal. Last presidential cycle we have a parade of not-Romney candidates because the base really did not trust or like Romney. However the establishment backed him, and those not-Romney tended to flame out fairly quickly. That’s not the dynamic this time around.
There is no single candidate that fully has the establishment’s backing, and the summer has evolved into fall with winter coming and Carson and Trump show no signs of crashing. Why?
Has the population of the Republican electorate changed that much? Did younger voters go elsewhere while too many members, like me, left in disgust? Is the field so weak that bombast fills in for seriousness? Have eight years of ‘no compromise’ conditioned an electorate to view anything except rigid purity as unacceptable?
I hold as an article of faith that someone other than Trump or Carson will win the nomination, but I don;t know who or how. In the meantime, I watch as one of America’s two parties thrashes in the throes of madness.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/19/republican-voters-actually-arent-divided-into-establishment-and-outsider-camps/
Fascinating new analysis of the Republican race from the Washington Post, based upon unique poll questions. It suggests there is a ceiling on Trump support, and that Cruz is well suited to pick up support if other front runners drop out.
You misunderstand. I never claimed Trumps current success is about name recognition.
2)Trump’s name recognition is NOT why I think he currently leads the polls. His combined wealth and fame only gave him an opportunity, a chance, because the media and public would have dismissed any other non-politician candidate lacking the same combination of wealth and fame.
I think Trump leads the pack right now because of his blunt populist appeals to nationalism. I thought I was perfectly clear about that.
1)Trump did not jump to an immediate lead. His lead did not begin until after the murder of Kathryn Steinle.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Trump announced his presidential run on June 16th. His controversial opening statement on illegal immigration didn’t seem to do him much good, as his poll numbers flatlines at roughly 5%. That is until July 12th when it begins to shoot up and Trump’s rapid rise crossed over Bush’s lead to Trump’s first lead of the polls on July 19th of 16%.
Kathryn Steinle was shot in San Franciso on July 1st.
I think Trump was very lucky.
3)The rise of Trump has scrambled the field of play.
Once Trump rose to the lead and didn’t immediately deflate, that had a powerful effect on other candidates. The most immediate and powerful of which was popping the balloon of expectations that Bush was the inevitable nominee.
I think one powerful reason Carson is now taken seriously enough to garner such strong support, is only because Trump already registered such strong support. Without Trump upsetting the apple cart, I don’t think Carson would be polling as well today. Because if Trump can do it, why not someone else? Someone better than Trump?
I think you miss my point. It is NOT that Trump or Carson epitomize the republican party, in fact the premise is just the opposite. That the Republican Party is a serious Party and the question is why would a serious party have such people leading in the polls for so long.
Your argument seems to be name recognition, but I don’t find that persuasive for three principal reasons.
1) Name recognition tends to be a short-lived affair and Trump leapt to the top the moment he announced and has pretty much stayed there all summer and into the fall.
2) Name recognition tends to fade after contact with actually campaigning, but Trump has gotten stronger not weaker as he is heard more and more.
3) Carson has nowhere near the name recognition background of Trump and yet he’s right up there with trump in polling support.
This is no longer name recognition or silly summer season stuff, this is real support while actual politicians with records and experience are forced out.
One should keep in mind a Party is more than a Presidential nominee.
Did Romney epitomize the Republican Party? Or McCain?
Did McGovern epitomize the Democratic Party? Did Carter?
As to the narrower question of current Republian polls, I’d say it isn’t so much about any of the other nominees so much as it’s all about Trump. A weird and no doubt media fueled phenomena that has twisted typical expectations and deprived some promising candidates of political oxygen.
Trump is certainly unique as a candidate in two important ways. First, he already had very high name recognition. It wouldn’t surprise me if his recognition before he announced was higher than the current VPOTUS. The second way Trump is unique is his wealth, which means he would’t be ignored since he can self finance a national campaign.
Trump most resembles Perot, except Trump is running as a major party candidate instead of an independent. And look what happened with Perot, no question Perot had a major impact on the 1992 election and at one point I believe he actually led both major parties in national polling.
Despite his current lead, I think Trump may have a ceiling on his support of about 25%. Is that enough to win the nomination? I think unlikely.
Why is Trump currently at 25%? I think because of his naked appeals to nationalism, something which the big-business-lobby really doesn’t care for, whether it comes to issues of trade or illegal immigration.
What first rocketed Trump to the top of the polls was his stance on illegal immigration.