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Macbeth Act 1 Scene 3

If you can look into the seeds of time,

And say which grain will grow and which will not,

Speak then to me, who neither beg nor fear

Your favors, nor your hate.

We have no untrustworthy witches with which to foretell the destiny of our nation. All we have are untrustworthy polls and badly fitted historical analogies as we confront a crucial presidential election like no other.

The Republican Party is now shorn of all principle, devoting itself to a charlatan, a felon, a misogynist, and an insurrectionist all melded together like some horrid Voltron in the orange hued body of Trump. Never has a major party candidate mused about setting aside the Constitution, suggested that the military fire upon those protesting him, or been so enamored with strong men that murder and repress their own populations. And yet every measurable metric indicates a strong possibility of his electoral victory in November.

The Democratic party meanwhile is led by an aging pol form whom the signs of time’s inevitable decline seeming grow by the hour. It is an unavoidable truth that in appearance Biden’s looks weaker and more frail than he ever has. A terrible truth of elections is that appearance matters far more than reality. Did you know that there are studies that show a population of test subjects, utterly unfamiliar with any election or candidate can predict the outcome of a two-person election based solely on photographs of the candidates? Elections are not about policy and positions but vibes and narratives and the narrative is bad for Biden.

The Trump’s campaign is to attack Biden as ‘weak’ and Trump as ‘strong’ a battle plan that works more and more as Biden appears frailer and more aged.

Does that mean Biden should step aside?

I don’t know. In the modern era no party that has dumped its incumbent has gone on to victory.

A new candidate would throw the Trump’s campaign plans into chaos, but no one know what narrative would emerge.

Trump is the most dangerous candidate to ever try for the office and should he win reelection the nature of our democracy is changed. Even if he leaves at the end of his second term, either by walking out or being carried out, the changes he and his people plan to do lay the groundwork for further changes. Project 2025 envisions sweeping changes to the Federal government amplifying the powers of the presidency. This prospect thrills those on the right but they should quake at the thought that that those newly found powers will not always reside in hand that they control.

Never craft a political power you aren’t willing to hand to your opponents.