Now that the 208 midterms are in our review mirror. (For the most part North Carolina-9 looks to be upsetting.) People are starting to look forward the presidential contest in 2020.

Barring some unforeseen event that should pit President Trump versus a Democratic challenger and quite a few predictions I have seen seem to tilt the field in favor of Trump. This is usually predicated on looking at the historical record of presidential re-election bids, something that incumbents usually win. Though recently deceased George H.W. Bush lost his re-election bid going from a near 90% approval rating to losing to as the television show The Critic put it, ‘a fat, lecherous Hillbilly.’ I would suggest that history is a poor guide for the 2020 election.

The 2018 midterms produced a voter turnout unseen in a mid-term election since 1914. A turnout generated almost entirely as a reaction to the resident of the White House. Trump’s popularity bounces between the high 30’s and the low 40s, despite the economy continue to hum along quite well. Perhaps most importantly, Trump’s victory in 2016 was an electoral misfired. Clinton had nearly 3 million more votes in her favor but a handful of voters in key states cost her the election. It is not unreasonable to assume that it is an up hill battle for Trump to make up that 3 million vote deficit. It is unlikely that the Democratic challenger, no matter who they are, will ignore the lessons of 2016 of taking certain states for granted. In addition should there be some calamity that saps what little support Trump has now it is not inconceivable that like Reagan going after Ford in the primaries that Trump would have to fight off an early challenge.

None of this should be taken as me saying that Trump is toast. He commands nearly 90% support among his party and partisanship alone will make 2020 competitive but I do think that the incumbent will be facing headwinds that render the easy yardstick of history a poor measure.