Well, here I am making my very public prediction for the outcome of the US elections this cycle. 2012.
I used my usual methods to predict the outcome. A method that has in the past been fairly accurate. I used aggregate polling to determine the baseline, and then I split up the remainder of the undecided based up the right track/wrong track figure. This cycle that means I am giving 60% (I round up to the next whole 10% interval) to Romney and the Repuiblicans, as that are the party out of power with the executive branch.
The results are most unusual and I’d say are likely to be wrong, at least in the popular vote, however I am sticking to my methodology.
Popular Vote: Mit Romney 50.3 to Barack Obama 49.7
However in the electoral college things get hanky;
Barack Obama 275-290 vs Mitt Romney 248-263. Yes this is a misfire where the electoral college and the popular vote goes north and south. They are rare, but they do happen.
Here is the electoral map as I think is most likely:
What are your guesses my brave political commenters?
that wasn’t an official ocffie but he certainly didn’t have anything bad to say about the flag or Guevara did he? Kind of like saying hey I’m a good guy and I don’t even mind if my supporters like murderous thugs. But I digress-Guess who else was a Cuban sympathizer? That’s right class, Lee Harvey Oswald, a marksmen that never met a communist he didn’t like.Now, let us put it all together–Che Guevara was Castro’s chief persecutor-er I mean prosecutor, he was personally responsible for the killings of thousands of Cubans. If you need to check that for truth ride on down to Miami and start waving a Guevara flag.-JFK was killed by a Cuban sympathizer (Oswald) or maybe that should be plural depending on who you believe and how tight your tin foil is wrapped.-Teddy (speed racer) and Maria Schriver endorse Obama.-Obama could care less about a Cuban Guevara flag flown in his supporter’s ocffie.Does the irony escape Teddy and Maria? I’ll have what he’s drinking…The point here is that the Democrats are very quick to forget history and when someone reminds them they are even quicker to dismiss it. Here’s another fact for you-One of the former members of the terrorist group Weather Underground, William Ayers, proclaimed in an interview with the New York Times published on 9/11/01 that he didn’t regret setting bombs (A series of bombings that occurred in the 70s and included the U.S. Capitol and the Pentagon).Guess who Mr. Ayers supports? That’s right, Obama. In fact Mr. Ayers served on The Woods Fund (an anti poverty group) with Obama from 1999 to 2002. Swapping ideas I’d venture.And before any of you say I’m just a white guy railing on a black guy running for President, well I say there is no black guy running for President, Obama is white, at least his mother is but he hasn’t said much about that either has he?Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain folks. It’s all about change anyway, the change in your pockets that is.
Weird polling.
Many polls show the race very tight. Within the margin of error. I suppose it all comes down to turnout then, which side wants it more badly.
Then there are the turnout assumptions. Pollsters assume the same turnout in 2012 as in 2008 (Rasmussen does this too). Supposedly the Obama campaign assumes an even higher turnout from their base than in 2008 because of their ground game efforts during 2012.
But what if they are wrong? And turnout resembles more the close contests of 2000 or 2004? Will swing voters be the deciding factor then? Swing voters which all the polls have shown Romney has a comfortable lead with?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrsbm-nCy24&feature=player_embedded
I have to admit, it will be one weird election outcome if Romney holds onto his Republican base and wins most of the swing voters, yet still loses to Obama. But that is exactly the scenario we are being led to believe by Nate Silver.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/11/04/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/
Supposedly the Nate Silver methodology did a terrible job forecasting the outcome of the UK 2010 election. Really bad.
Obama is runing some very effective (accurate) adds about what Romney plans for Medicare. This _COULD_ sway seniors down here. Unfortunately, many of them are convinced that 1) Obama is Muslim (Which shouldn’t make a difference, but it does), 2) Obama is slowly and sneakily turning our country over to Islamic Nation or Nation of Islam (something like that. I don’t believe it, so I’ve never given it much thought) and 3) that Obama has raised taxes and harmed this country – never mind that the thing REALLY holding us back down here is our own (Republican) governor. Do you know how many people I heard in the voting line wish we were voting his sorry behind out? Regardless otf the results, lot’s of people are participating in the process through early voting. I do know, assuming our votes are counted properly, our voice will be heard.
On this date 538 (Nate Silver) predicts
Obama 50.6% vs Romney 48.4% (love that decimal point precision!)
Wow, that’s only a drop of 2.3% from what Obama got in 2008. Gosh, imagine how Obama would be doing if the unemployment rate was actually lower today then when he took office, and if gas wasn’t more expensive too.
Obama 305.3 electoral votes vs Romney 232.7 electoral votes
Why Silver even predicts Virginia is going for Obama!
Obama 83.7% chance of winning the election! What a sure thing, eh?
Will the Nate Silver’s Magical Mystery Predictatron prove correct? We will see won’t we?
538? Here you go…
http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2012/10/post.php
My predictions
popular vote: Obama 47%, Romney 52%
Electoral votes: Obama 259, Romney 279.
With the exception of Nevada which Obama wins, I predict Romney wins the same states that Bush won in 2000. Under this prediction Romney still wins even if Obama also wins Colorado.
Ohio may not be resolved until ten days after the election because of the conditions used for counting provisional ballots in Ohio.
I have my eye in particular on Ohio and Wisconsin as states that may flip from my predictions. If both flip, Romney still wins.
Early indicators for a Romney win are if Romney wins New Hampshire or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Early indicator for an Obama win are if Obama wins Virginia or Florida or Ohio.
If Obama does win, I suspect it will be an electoral college majority (because of Ohio) but popular vote loss of 1% to 3%. Some mandate.
well my numbers have Florida as being very close, but ending up Romney with 50.18% of the vote. So just a little sway and it could go blue. If it does then this election will be over early.
I regretfully agree with your prediction for my own state. Stupid social conservatives!
I’m going with FiveThirtyEight on this one, mostly because math.