Well, here I am making my very public prediction for the outcome of the US elections this cycle. 2012.

I used my usual methods to predict the outcome. A method that has in the past been fairly accurate. I used aggregate polling to determine the baseline, and then I split up the remainder of the undecided based up the right track/wrong track figure. This cycle that means I am giving 60% (I round up to the next whole 10% interval) to Romney and the Repuiblicans, as that are the party out of power with the executive branch.

The results are most unusual and I’d say are likely to be wrong, at least in the popular vote,  however I am sticking to my methodology.

Popular Vote: Mit Romney 50.3 to Barack Obama 49.7

However in the electoral college things get hanky;

Barack Obama 275-290 vs Mitt Romney 248-263. Yes this is a misfire where the electoral college and the popular vote goes north and south. They are rare, but they do happen.

Here is the electoral map as I think is most likely:

What are your guesses my brave political commenters?