Tonight, just two weeks from the election, we’ll be treated to the third and final presidential debate. The subject, in theory, is foreign policy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if things wander a bit.

I shan’t be watching this one in real time as I have a meeting of the Mysterious galaxy Writers Support Group and I try to never miss a meeting. This support group has been a real factor in my improvement as a writer. Two years ago when the group started I had just finished my novel “Cawdor,” and looking back at the manuscript I can see such improvement in style that it surprises me.

So where do we stand in the Presidential election race?

As of 10/22

RCP: Romney +0.3

TPM:  Obama +1.5

Pollster: Romney +0.1

INtrade: Obama + $2.23

 

Last Tuesday the numbers were:

RCP: Romney +.04

TPM: Obama +1.1

Pollster: Romney +.03

INtrade: Obama +$2.37

 

This is a far cry from the numbers of 9/29

RCP: Obama +4.3

TPM: Obama +3.9

Pollster: Obama +4.4

Intrade: +$5.71

 

It looks to me that the race has settled down into a very close heat, and the fluctuations over the last two weeks have primarily been noise in the system. Romney’s advance after the first debate has pretty much held. Right now I’d give the popular vote edge to Romney, but that may not translate into being election due toAmerica’s unusual system of presidential elections knows as the Electoral College.

Just as in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college we could have a misfire or even a tie. Of course a tie in this election would mean a Romney win as there are more red states than blue and each state would get 1 vote for determining the presidency. To make this an even more messed up situation the House only determines the presidency, the Senate votes for the vice-president. That means if the Democrats controlled the Senate we could have President Romney and Vice-President Biden.