So instead of waiting a full week to see if the polls have moved after the vice-presidential debate, I’m taking a look at them today as to remove any effect of the second presidential debate.
The numbers as they stood six days ago on 10 Oct 2012
RCP: Romney +1
TPM Polltracker: Romney +2.4
Pollster: Romney +1
Intrade: Obama + $2.57
The same measurement today:
RCP: Romney +0.4
TPM Polltracker: Romney +1.1
Pollster: +0.3
INtrade: Obama $2.37
So three of the indicators moves in Obama/Biden’s direction, while the fourth moved in Romnny’s. What movement there was in Obama’s direction was weak and hardly indicative of a major change in the electorate, which seems to be the case in the movement towards Romney after the 1st debate.
Unless something breaks, this looks to be a tight race. There are only three weeks left before election day and for team Obama the stumble in Denver is proving to be one that is dogging their heels. With a weak recovery following a financial crisis they had little room for error, and yet still went into the debate wholly unprepared.
I had read that the debate stand for Romney was John Kerry. Really? That’s a poor choice in my opinion, one I think that might have been a factor. (But certainly not the sole and or prime factor.)