Looking at data like this, I’m seriously thinking of taking the day after the election off from my day job. Because my typical election party may go well into the night like it did in 2000. (Now I have jinxed, but for whom?)
I think it is going to be a nail bitter
I don’t care for any one polling house, but you had stated you could not find a current poll of likely voters and I was pointing out that there was one.
Aggregate polling for me still works best because it gives you many more data points.
I thought you didn’t care for the Rasmussen poll?
In any event the July 27 Rasmussen poll shows Romney with a 5% lead over Obama.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
I’ve never heard of that polling firm, but there are lots and lots of poling firms.
I don’t know if you noticed but what I have posted is an interactive device, you can filter it to just likely voters, when you do that, Romney leads by less than a point.
And
has a poll of likely voters, dated today the 14th with Obama @ 46% and Romney @ 45%. This is why I like aggregate polling, because it smooths out house biases an such.
Who says they aren’t?
Most polls don’t screen for likely voters. Even the polls of registered voters show, as of right now, a tie. You know what that means.
This poll is the only recent one I could find of likely voters,
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/7/prweb9694629.htm
And that poll shows Romney leading by 4.5%, which is more than the margin of error. (Margin of error is +/- 1.6% at the 95% confidence level.)
And given your graph why do you think it is that Romney and the Republican’s are not polling higher?
Perhaps. Allow me to retort with a different graph…
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/11/devastating-graph-reveals-obamas-unemployment-economy