Today is the 4^th Republican Primary as they attempt to select a Presidential Nominee to contest Obama for the White House this fall. After a seeming endless series of debates, the rise and fall of countless not-Romney stretching from the credible to the incredible, the field has been narrowed to four candidates left standing; Romney — leading in the polls and very likely the nominee, Gingrich  — the current not-Romney, a man with a volatile personality and checkered political past, the current vessel for the hopes of dreams of the hard core base (though how a man who lobbied for Medicare Part D, the individual mandate, and action on Global Warming, wins the support of that base is a manifestation just how unloved Romney truly is by the base.) Santorum – social conservative, his says all the right things about abortion and gays, but he can’t seem to fire up the base and lastly Paul – the ‘libertarian’ though he strike me as less libertarian and more like someone who felt that the Articles of Confederation were the right path.

The aggregate polling indicates that Romney is the likely winner tonight. I think the essential question is not if Romney wins but by how much and does that stop the fighting?

A big double-digit, about 15 points, win over his closest competitor I think will go a long way to making Romney unstoppable and dry up the money for Santorum and possibly Gingrich. Less than 10 points means this fight goes on.

Nothing save death is going to stop Paul’s campaign, but if it becomes a two man race of Romney vs. Paul, well then the campaign is over. The base, with their love of a large expansive military will never accept Paul not matter how often the man attacks the big federal government.

In many ways I hope there is an upset, simply because I can’t remember when politics has been so entertaining. Welcome to reality TV 2012.