So it’s about three weeks until the elections and it’s time to put my rep on the line. Here’s my rum down — barring any major events that upset the applecart (peachcarts are always ignored, le sigh.)
The Democrats have about 46 solid seats that can be considered safe or not up for re-election, the Republicans have 35, that leaves about 19 seats up for grabs of which the Republicans need 16 to gain a majority. 16 out of 19 that’s a mighty steep hill. But of that 16 they only need 11 pick-ups to gain control.
Connecticut: The democrat Blumenthal has about an 8.5 point lead over the Republican. The Republican is closing, but there isn’t much time left. It will be close, but I will call it for the Democrats.
Pennsylvania: Here the Republican has a lead of about 7.7 points, and it is widening. Call this one republican, and it’s a pick-up from across the isle. (Republicans +1)
Delaware: Here the Democrats have a smashing 13 point lead over Republican and Tea-party favorite Christine O’Donnell. If O’Donnell come with 4 pts of winning expect a totally crushing night for the Democrats. I call this one for the Democrats.
West Virginia: Republicans are up by 6.2 points and pulling away, so this one I think will go Republican and it is another pick-up. (Republicans +2)
Florida: Three-way races are tough ones to call, but Rubio is pulling ahead and I expect that Crist and teh Democrat will split the rest. Call it for Rubio. (Republican +3)
Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky: all go Republican, but only one is a pick-up. (republicans +4)
Louisiana: Stays Republican.
Arkansas: After a bruising year expect the incumbent Democrat to lose, another Republican pick-up (Republicans +5)
Missouri: Stays Republican.
Illinois: the republican has a 2.2 point lead, that’s really close, but this year it is enough. I expect that it will be a Republican win and a pick-up, and a propaganda coup as this is Obama’s old seat. (Republican +6)
Wisconsin: The Democrat, a long term incumbent, is down by almost 10 point tonight. Republican win and pick-up. (Republican+7)
Colorado: Democrats are down by 4.8 points. Another Loss and pick-up. (Republican +8)
Nevada: less than a point between the Democrat, Reid and the Republican Angle. More than 7.5 undecided. Normally that would be a small advantage to the incumbent, but I don;t think so this year. If O’Donnell does well then Angle flat out winds it. I will call it for Angle and a pick-up. (Republican+9)
Washington: Democratic incumbent is up by 3.2 points, very tight, but a state that is more centre-left than right. I thin the Democrats will hold on to this one. (If O’Donnell comes within 4, expect this one to go over as well.)
Alaska: Currently Held by a Republican who lost her primary and now has turned it into a three-way race. Write ins are really tough. I expect Miller the republican to will. No pick-up though.
California: If O’Donnell get with 4 Boxer is boxed and shipped home, otherwise she stays in the senatye.
My prediction is that the republicans will pick-up a number of seats, but not enough gain control of the senate.
If that is your definition of a trick use, this is not the first time and not even the first time for Health care purposes. COBRA which allows workers to continue with the employer funded health care after the end of employment for up to 18 months was passed by reconciliation. Reconciliation is used all the time — what was different this time was the yelling.
Reconciliation is a trick when it is used for non-budget bills such as Obamacare. And the fact that Obamacare was so unpopular at the time of passage demonstrates the arrogance of the Democrats using reconciliation to bypass a filibuster.
Of course that arrogance is a large part of why they are about to get hammered this election cycle.
You’re right, for some reason I was thinking the Democrats still had there 60. So the republican need only 10, but I think they will get nine. Of course this is is razor tight and it is possible. (IF you think they will get ten where do you think there are going to get it?)
Reconciliation isn’t a trick – it’s been used many times in the past for major legislation. This time the republican made good propaganda uses out of it, but that’s what it was propaganda. It was no more a trick when used for Healthcare than it was when it was used to pass the Bush Tax Cuts.
“…[Republicans] only need 11 pick-ups to gain control.”
Nope. They only need 10. Republicans already hold 41 Senate seats. The 41st was Senator Brown.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/scott-brown-massachusetts-republican-senator-gop-star/story?id=9614621
That’s why the election of Brown was such a big deal, it broke the filibuster-proof majority the Democrats had gained with the re-count election victory of Senator Al Franken (cringe).
Because Brown had once again given the Republicans enough votes to successfully filibuster, Obamacare was supposed to be dead at that point. That’s when the Democrats used the “reconciliation” trick to bypass normal procedure and still pass Obamacare into law anyway. A trick I’m sure that will one day come back to haunt the Democrats.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/republicans-kind-of-suck-which-is-why-they-will-win-huge-in-november/
Re. Florida. I am very much afraid that we will end up with Rubio, mores the pity, and that the liberal vote will be split between Crist & Dem candidate. I can tell you that the education vote should go firmly to Crist & in Florida teachers are enough of a percentage of the vote that we can change election results. In a way, as far as long term plans, by pushing so hard with Prop. 6 last year, the Republicans are getting exactly what they want – Republican control. We educators remember that Crist refused to bow to the Republican Party line and he vetoed 6, giving us a temporary reprieve from a bill that would have been very bad for education. (Not to go into details, but it was very poorly thought out and did not even remotely address the needs of all students.) This will send some votes that might ordinarily go to the Dem. candidate over to the indep. candidate. However, teachers as a group are really a pretty conservative bunch and we do not vote as a block. It is possible that Rubio may lose some tradiationally Republican votes also.
Here’s the thing I don’t get – who the heck is Rubio anyway? He seems to have burst into prominance about 18 month/2 years ago and he is the Republican Party’s darling. Would someone please tell me why? He just spouts the party line and doesn’t seem to have an original thought in his brain. He’s no dummy (you don’t get a doctorate in law from Miami if you are a dummy) but he’s not an original thinker and he doesn’t go outside the (Republican, Social Conservative) box.